In last 2 weeks only we have seen sharp rise in USDINR from 66.26 and 68.14 levels till now. Majority of analysts are highlighting that up move in on back of rise in US Dollar index as well as blame is on the demonetization. However we predicted in the end of October 2016 that USDINR can face tough times ahead on back of Elliott wave pattern. Part of the same is taken from “The Forex Waves Short Term Update”.


USDINR 60 mins chart futures: (Anticipated in the morning of 26th October 2016)

USDINR,Elliott wave


USDINR 60 mins chart futures: (Happened till now)

USDINR,Elliott wave

 

(Part of research mentioned in the morning of 26th October 2016)


Wave Analysis:


The above USDINR chart is picked up from “The Forex Waves short term update” research report. At times it is important to see the movement of other asset class to gauge in case they are providing any leading indication.


“we can see that after the rise from 58 levels to near 69 prices have been moving in a range for many months now. This range bound action has broken the trendline which indicates that probably wave iv is ongoing. Also the internals of waves i and iii (red) are corrective in nature which confirms that Ending Diagonal pattern is under formation.


Wave iv normally consumes time and forms non directional movement which is visible even above. For an important top to form we should see sharp and fast reversal that takes out previous high in faster time. Since this has not happened it indicates that intermediate wave v (blue) is still not complete and only wave iv (red) of this wave v (blue) is currently forming. So post completion of wave v one final push on upside towards 69 – 70 mark can be expected.


In short, USDINR has been moving in absolute sideways action but a trending move should emerge soon in this currency pair and INR can start depreciating against USD over next few months. Many will then give credit to ex governor Mr. Rajan who earlier managed to curb Rupee volatility but the current governor will face tough times. Let see if USDINR turns up along with down tick on Equity markets!”


The above mentioned research clearly highlights that we were expecting USDINR to depreciate and prices have behaved in same manner. To trade such moves, subscribe to “The Forex Waves Short Term Update” and for more information visit Pricing Page