This topic contains 7 replies, has 3 voices, and was last updated by Ashish Kyal, CMT 3 weeks, 4 days ago.
- 23rd June 2020 at 10:29 am #218041
Starting a fresh chain for some stock analysis ..
To follow up on the Auto Sector – which was under performing wrt Nifty , but showing strong signs of outperforming going ahead – In addition to Tata motors ( which i had analysed on another thread ) , i have analysed Hero MotorCo, which is very well poised for a strong upmove ( similar to the Auto Index currently staring at a zone of resistance 6730-7000) ,
Daily time frame – Since its ATH 2H 2017, this stock has been in a corrective mode and has completed the triple combo WXYXZ end March and have started its impulsive upmove since then .
On a hourly time frame – we can see that we are in an extended 3rd wave of the impulse move , with a 4th leg formation underway ( Triangle or Flat ) depending if the 0-b trendline is respected. For now its being respected and most probably its forming a triangle completing e .
Basis Time cycles –
On an an hourly time frame 53 hours cycle has been working fine , which is giving a cue for 23/24 June for the trend to change – Good Idea to pay attention if 4th wave triangle is complete an the 5th upmove starts ( Even the Index is showing an important trend reversal on 24/25)
**Area of 2370- 2530 is a zone with strong price action and the stock is similarly poised as the Index just near the resistance zone. With SL 2370 ( With ATR @ 27 , conservative SL 2385 ) , once 0-B trendline is broken on pull back we can enter for a first target of 2530 and after than it can be trailed depending on how the 5th wave unfolds.
**if Time cycles work well, Buying a Call 2400/2450 ( even 25 Expiry might give some good returns :))
<span style=”text-decoration: underline;”>Hourly </span>
4th Wave Zoomed In
Auto Sector Wrt Nifty – Since the downfall started Auto Index was underperforming wrt Nifty , but it has caught up and its showing a upwards trajectory similary to Pharma , so a potential upside for the index and individual stocks ( Hero showing more promise )
- 23rd June 2020 at 11:23 am #218072
Ashish Kyal, CMT
Elliott wave counts are fine but not valid as per Neo wave
- 24th June 2020 at 11:19 am #218357
Could you let me know which count doesnt match ? The overall counts of WXYXZ or the upmove count or the 4th wave correction count ?
Maybe it was just fluke or just random luck on my part that the stock moved up as expected .
- 25th June 2020 at 11:49 am #218690
Ashish Kyal, CMT
As per Neo atleast one of the waves should be extended within impulse pattern. Your assessment was very much correct looking at the overall trend and technical perspective and so the stock moved higher. It was not luck but good observation
- 1st July 2020 at 2:37 pm #220001
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Bank Nifty as well as Nifty moved beautifully today kicking in the time cycles . .When u further look at Bank nifty index, everyone contributed but Kotak which is getting consolidated in the the neutral triangle with an upside bias forming in b leg of the corrective abc as shown below. With e being the shortest leg , it should retrace it entire move in t+1 time frame to confirm this which either near todays closing or tomorrow opening .
On 15 min Ichimoku , we do see the future cloud is red and the prices are curretnly being given a resitance by the cloud .. Watching the price levels of 1360 and 1372 , once they break with momentun , on pull back should give a good trade set up for first target of 1400 and then trail to 1420 .
Hourly Time cycles worked well as of today , so with Bank nifty outlook to 22k-22.5k there is a good upside to this stock.
- 1st July 2020 at 4:33 pm #220024
Very well Rahul
- 13th July 2020 at 12:21 am #222865
Following up on HeroMoto on the above , have the below analysis for this week .
Auto index has performed amazinly and in line with the expectation . we are in the zone of max resistance which i had mentioned before ( 6700-7100) and taking out this zone is madatory to see further upside on the stocks. During the downfall this zone was taken out in 6 bars , but its feelign the resitance now , with prices already spending almost 14 bars in this zone. IF we observe from levels of 5500, we saw 9 green candles followed by 6 sideways movement before X on the down happened , then 5 green candles followed by 6 sideways movement and now 4 green candles and another sideway moment ( 3 candles done so far).
We are now in the b leg of wave Y and Index should move sideways for some time ( atleast 3 candles) to consolidate before resistance zone is taken out .. Nifty is also in the similar zone .
The same translates to Hero . Though on a bigger TF of weekly and Daily this is still a clear BUY , its a small observation on a Weekly that first time in the last 2 years prices have taken out the red cloud and a slight green cloud is visible.
Before we conclude wave 3 is finished we need 2 stage price confirmation on breaking the 2-4 blue trendline as well as below wave 4 level near 2460 levels and and time equality within 2-3 daily sessions.
on 15min, Cloud is red , prices are below the cloud as well as other liens are below , but price needs to break 2680 levels to give a buy signal .
First target to be 2575-2580 levels , break of 2550 levels should give the next level of 2460.
We will need to see price action and index movement at this level to see if a dip to 2350 levels are possible .
Weekly Time Frame
Weekly Time Frame Zoomed
- 16th July 2020 at 12:52 pm #223514
Ashish Kyal, CMT
Amazing charts Rahul..