MCX Crude post making a low near 3000 levels has witnessed recovery on the upside and has managed to sustain the rise indicating that a short term low might be formed near 3000 levels. It becomes important to analyse the bigger degree structure of this commodity.
Time Cycle differs for each commodity. Applying cycle is one of the ways to gauge what will be the next move. Below is the chart showing Time Cycle combined with Elliott wave technique.
MCX Crude weekly chart:
(The following is the research from our monthly update published on 6th March, 2019)
Wave perspective: As shown on the weekly chart, post making a low near 3000 levels prices witnessed a V shaped recovery and have reversed back exactly from the neckline of the inverse H&S pattern. Prices are moving in the form of Complex correction pattern and the last set of correction is on-going in the form of wave Z. If we carefully look at the RSI indicator we can see that the oversold zone for the same has been near ……….and the overbought zone is near ………… The rise witnessed from the low of 3000 was exactly when ………….
?? Week’s Time Cycle: We are showing ?? weeks Cycle on the chart and this cycle has worked amazingly well in capturing the major lows. Post the cycle low formed near 1900 where wave (c) was completed buying was witnessed. Recently post the cycle low formed near 3000 buying was witnessed. So over the short term we can expect prices to move towards higher levels and the low of 3000 should be protected on the downside. As per this Cycle the next low ………………
In short, Crude has continued to be in limelight and the trend over the short term looks positive and a move towards ……………… can expected over the short term. An important support on downside is placed near ?????? decisive break below which will indicate that wave (b) is completed on the upside and wave (c) has started on the downside which will drive the Global commodity prices lower and will indicate the next set of correction is starting. Until then ………………
The above analysis clearly shows how well the cycle theory works. We have been using these technique coupled with Elliot wave and Neo wave to get a medium trend on Nifty currency and long term pick. To get insight subscribe to our monthly report-“The Financial Waves Monthly Update.”
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