Nifty had a sharp fall over past two days and prices have decisively broken below the low of 11550 levels. This is the same level which had been protected for many weeks and the same level will now act as a strong resistance as per polarity reversal.
By breaking this level of 11550 there is a very important indication. It is not often to see break of the important supports during a pre-election rally. Secondly, this level also marked the low of time cycle of 55 days which we have been using for many years. By breaking a time cycle low there is an indication that a bigger cycle has turned on the downside and therefore the high at 11856 might remain protected for the rest of 2019. Yes, this is a bold statement but the cycles are indicating that. The only apprehension to this is the event outcome on 23rd May which might result into whipsaw of 11856 or higher towards 12000 but that should be it!!!
Nifty daily chart:
The above chart clearly shows that the cycle has worked well as long as the low had been protected. Only during expanding patterns the cycle fails. So, as the low of the cycle at 11550 is broken there is a high possibility that the top made at 11856 will remain protected.
The election outcome might result into a spike move on upside and markets seems to be discounting it will be Modi sarkar again. This might trigger a positive spike but that will also be temporary and the downtrend will eventually resume.
So, how to trade when we now know the path based on objective Elliott wave method. It is not easy ride till 23rd and using strict stop loss is important as volatility is only going to increase. Does it make sense to short at current levels when RSI is oversold? What should be the trading strategy?
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