Indian Rupee is again in limelight as it touched the new low of 69.09 against US Dollar recently. This has raised the question that till what levels Indian Rupee can move? Was it possible to predict this move from the levels of 63? Here have a look.
This may be surprise for many however in the month of May 2018 itself we predicted that new lows are coming which we can witness right now. It has continued to follow the Neo wave path and technical analysis very well. Let us revisit the outlook on USDINR which is published in our monthly report” The Financial Waves Monthly Update”.
USDINR Weekly chart spot: Anticipated as on 9th July, 2018
USDINR weekly chart spot: Happened as on 30th August, 2018
(Below is the extract taken from our monthly report published as on 9th of July, 2018)
Anticipated: Neo wave perspective: Most of the times market moves in corrective way and here we can see the same. The weekly chart clearly indicates that since 2008 prices are moving higher in form of Diametric pattern. This is complex pattern where contraction is followed by expansion. As of now USDINR is in expansion stage in form of wave G of Diametric pattern. This may look dangerous however as of now chart patterns are suggesting that panic in USDINR has not yet started. Further depreciation is on the cards. Recent breach of previous high also depicts that traders and investors are nervous about the headwind ahead due to higher crude prices and effect of the same on Indian Fiscal Deficit. On a weekly basis any close above 69 spot will further assure our outlook. Monthly bar technique to follow trend: From last 5 months prices have continued to protect the low of prior month on closing basis. So as long as this continues one should avoid catching tops. As per this, 66.80 spot is the important support on downside.In short, USDINR trend remains positive and our outlook for 75 target is open for now. 67-66.80 spot is the important medium term support. Close above 69 on weekly basis can take prices towards 71 levels immediately!
Happened: The prices have behaved precisely as expected and made a new high near 71 levels.
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