Indian Rupee has continued to depreciate against dollar since the beginning of 2018. This has direct positive impact on IT and Pharma sector as majority of this company’s earnings are in US dollars. On the other hand, companies which are major importers will be highly affected.
Below is the chart with detailed analysis using Elliott Wave counts, Fibonacci series and Channels.
USDINR Hourly chart Oct Fut:
Elliott Wave analysis:
On hourly chart of USDINR, we have used Fibonacci series technique which is use to drive support and resistance areas. Ideally, in an impulse pattern where wave 3 is extended, we have taken Fibonacci Extension of Wave (iii) with respect to wave (i) which is precisely 1.618% of wave (i). Wave (iv) formed a triangle pattern. If we observe closely the width of this Triangle pattern is in equality with wave v move and still on-going. This equality target comes near 74.05, on upside. So there is still room on upside and any dips is only going to provide buying opportunity. Further break above 74.05 can take the prices towards………. Levels.
In impulse pattern (ii)-(iv) trendline places an important role in providing support areas. We can see how well it has provides support on hourly chart as prices bounced back from its support trendline. Only a break below this trendline will provide confirmation that major top has formed by this currency pair.
The above analysis interprets that USDINR seems to be in fag end of wave (v). However, it is advisable to avoid catching a top and at such times trailing stop loss methods should be adopted to capture the whole trend.
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