Fed Meeting Impact on Stock Market? Rate Hike or no Rate Hike?

nifty stock market trading us fed Nov 01, 2023

Fed Meeting Impact on Stock Market? Rate Hike or no Rate Hike?

U.S. Fed has constantly raise rates over the period of one year which is now in the zone of 5.25 – 5.50.

What is US Fed rate hike impact on stock market?

Below charts simple gives the fact. Remember chart never lies!

Nifty with Fed funds rate chart

Fed interest rates and Nifty chart is shown above. Left hand side scale is of Fed rate and the right hand side scale represents Nifty.

We can see during the year 2016 till the 2nd half of 2019 FED has continued to increase interest rates. During this period Nifty has moved from the lows of 7000 to the highs of 12000 levels. 

Post that during Covid period there is a sharp fall on downside both in Fed rates and Nifty. Fed rates were near to 0 for a long period of time until 2022. Nifty continued to rise all the way post the Covid fall.

The 3rd scenario is unprecedented rise by US Federal reserve since 2022 till date when the Fed rates moved up from near 0 levels to now 5.25% – 5.50% levels. During this period Nifty moved from 16000 to 20000 levels.

In a nutshell, seeing the above chart it seems that Fed rate hikes and Stock market has much higher positive correlation which if quantified will be more than 80% conservatively.

It is perceived that Nifty and Indian equity markets move because of the rate hike decision of Fed. In today’s meeting if there is rate hike prices will fall. Post events short term volatility is expected but ultimately prices follow Elliott wave patterns which can be used to trade rather than relying on news or events.

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