MCX Crude: How to identify turning points using Time Cycles & Elliott WaveSep 16, 2020
Crude had been in news over past few months due to the sharp movements we have seen in this commodity. We witnessed Nymex Crude entered negative territory that shook the entire financial world and many of the theories that never imagined a commodity can also trade negative. Let us see the trend of MCX Crude since the lows formed.
Following was published in the monthly research report on 09TH September 2020 – The Financial Waves monthly update
MCX Crude weekly chart:
Wave perspective: As shown on the weekly chart of MCX Crude, it seems that the correction that started in 2008 is still not over and the rise seen in 2016 – 2019 was only wave X. The next set of downside correction is currently on-going and prices are now in wave (d).
Weeks’ Time Cycle: We are showing weeks Cycle on the chart and this cycle has worked amazingly well in capturing the major lows. Post the cycle low formed near the life time low where wave (c) was completed buying was witnessed in form of wave (d). It only shows how amazing the cycles work on commodity markets as well and this Time Cycle has helped to capture major lows. It is big cycle which will turn bearish in around 35 weeks. Prices are currently trading in the first half of the cycle which is usually associated with the uptrend. However, it also indicates that the low made near April 2020 might remain protected but short term down move cannot be ruled out.
In short, The above analysis clearly shows how well the cycle theory works. We have been using these technique coupled with Elliott wave and Neo wave to get a medium trend on Nifty, Commodity, Momentum and Multibagger stocks.
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